Do Forecasters Inform or Reassure? Evaluation of the German Real-Time Data
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Do Forecasters Inform or Reassure? Evaluation of the German Real-Time Data
Kholodilin, Konstantin A | Siliverstovs, Boriss
Applied Economics Quarterly, Vol. 55(2009), Iss. 4 : pp. 269–293 | First published online: October 03, 2017
7 Citations (CrossRef)
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Kholodilin, Konstantin A
Siliverstovs, Boriss
Cited By
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REAL‐TIME DATA AND FISCAL POLICY ANALYSIS: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE
Cimadomo, Jacopo
Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 30(2016), Iss. 2 P.302
https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12099 [Citations: 47]
Abstract
The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast / revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naïve forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.
JEL Classifications: C53; C89